COP30 in Belém marked ten years since the Paris Agreement was adopted. Since 2015, Parties have succeeded in the difficult task of putting in place an unprecedented framework for collective climate action. Yet in terms of real-world delivery on its goal to limit global warming to ‘well below 2°C’, the world is not on track. Although many countries have gradually increased their climate ambition through their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), current pledges – if fully implemented – still point to warming of around 2.3-2.5°C. Implementation, however, remains in many cases conditional on climate finance – a limited resource for which significant scaling-up will require new approaches to mobilise both public and private support.
While the Paris Agreement’s bottom-up approach and built-in flexibilities were meant to accommodate different national circumstances and enable broad participation – and were successful in doing so – the assumption that countries could move at different speeds along different routes and yet ultimately deliver on the goal of ‘well below 2°C’ is looking increasingly uncertain.
Building on CEPS’ previous work in this context for the Rockefeller Foundation (October 2025-March 2026), the project will examine which policy options for engaging with international credits could help address concerns raised by EU policymakers, Member States and other relevant stakeholders during the 2040 climate target negotiations. At the same time, the project will analyse how these policy options could support the broader global clean transition, particularly in emerging and developing economies where accelerated coal phase-out and renewable deployment offer substantial climate but also health, social and economic co-benefits.
The project will be implemented in two phases over a period of 24 months. The first phase will assess the broader landscape for international carbon credits and examine and test, together with stakeholders, policy options to engage with credits while maintaining the integrity and ambition of its own climate framework. The second phase will focus specifically on transition credits and analyse the conditions under which they could contribute to the EU’s domestic and international strategic objectives.
