The European Council decision of December 2023 to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova and grant candidate status to Georgia has put the issue of enlargement high on the EU agenda. Placing these three countries on a path to membership has revamped the Western Balkan’s EU accession negotiations which had stalled for over 20 years. There are a lot of unknowns about this future round of enlargement. While there is a clear geopolitical imperative to integrate these new countries, the war situation in Ukraine as well as serious problems with the protection of democracy and the rule of law in some of the candidate countries make it difficult to anticipate at which moment will the accession take place.
Even if not all candidates join at the same time, or the EU adopts a gradual approach to accession, the accession of poorer countries will inevitably impact the EU budget. New Member States will be entitled to significant amounts of the EU’s common agricultural policy (CAP) and cohesion policy. This may change the net position of current Member States and create pressures for increasing the EU budget. Taking these different aspects into account, a comprehensive and sustainable response to the budgetary impact of enlargement thus requires linking this question to broader debates on how to reform the EU budget.
Led by Jacques Delors Institute, the main objective of the study is to assess the expected budgetary impact of future EU enlargements and discuss different options to make the EU budget fit for the new enlargement.
