There’s more than the AI revolution in our future. Quantum computing promises breakthroughs across domains thanks to its ability to simultaneously explore vast computational spaces. Quantum sensing offers precision that could transform medical diagnostics and autonomous navigation. Quantum networking aims to establish unconditionally secure communication.
Whether one believes McKinsey’s projections or Mario Draghi’s estimates, one thing is clear – quantum is set to massively change the way we organise our economy.
Markets are waking up to the idea, especially in the US. IonQ has reached a market capitalisation of USD 20 billion. Rigetti, targeting 1 000+ qubit systems by 2027, surpassed USD 6 billion before the risk of an over-optimistic timeline cooled sentiment. Microsoft, IBM and Google are integrating quantum into their cloud offers. NVIDIA launched the world’s first open-source quantum AI models in April. JPMorgan extended its USD 1.5 trillion security and resiliency programme to Europe, placing quantum at the core of its industrial transformation.
The quantum revolution is deeply entangled (yes, entangled) with the AI revolution and with breakthroughs in other general-purpose technologies. There’s no single quantum transition, just as there’s no single AI transition – and no AI transition isolated from quantum.
NVIDIA’s NVQLink, made publicly available at GTC 2026, has become the de facto integration layer between GPUs and QPUs, adopted by 17 QPU builders, five controller builders and nine US national labs. NVIDIA’s venture arm has taken equity stakes in all three major qubit modalities — Quantinuum, QuEra and PsiQuantum — at a combined valuation of over USD 17 billion.
NVIDIA isn’t selling QPUs. It doesn’t need to. Rather, it’s positioning itself as the mandatory classical layer in every serious quantum deployment; the same way it became the mandatory accelerator layer in AI.
Europe hasn’t sleepwalked into the quantum age
Europe is where quantum physics was unveiled. Quantum mechanics was, in its first three decades, an almost exclusively European enterprise. Policymakers have acted early: the EU has invested around EUR 2 billion since 2012, with Member States pledging a further EUR 9 billion, placing Europe among the top three public investors globally. On the private investment side, Quantonation recently closed a EUR 220 million fund, whereas 55North announced a EUR 300 million vehicle for quantum start-ups.
But reading the data, an all-too-familiar story starts to emerge. The EU accounts for more than 21 % of global publications on quantum, ahead of China (18.7 %) and the US (14.2 %). On patents, the picture inverts: the US holds 29 %, China 26.3 %, Japan 17.2 % – and the EU just 11.2 %. On venture capital, the US leads with 55 % of global deal value; the EU sits at 19.2 %.
A tale as old as time for Europe – great science, modest patenting, lagging scale-up.
The upcoming Quantum Act (end-2026) and the FP10 quantum moonshot offer the EU a chance to break the pattern. Below, a series of dos and don’ts to ensure the EU gets quantum right, based on two decades of analysing EU technology policy.
A decalogue for the next steps
DO engage in anticipatory foresight. Policymakers systematically underestimate the interactive effects of technological change. We look at quantum in isolation, not in sync with other GPTs. The interplay with AI alone will be massive.
DON’T spread the budget too thin. Europe has a handful of quantum excellence hubs. Diluting efforts across 27 Member States is the surest way to lose. In AI, our data revealed that European hubs cooperate more with the US than with each other; the same pattern is likely to be found in quantum.
DON’T repeat the AI mistakes. The AI Act ended up insufficiently adaptive and insufficiently detailed, while the ecosystem of excellence lagged until the Apply AI strategy belatedly focused on uptake. In quantum, Europe can – and must – do better.
DON’T be obsessed with qubits. As with AI, the race is for raw numbers and flashy headlines. But the metric that matters is logical, error-corrected qubits. Fifty stable, high-fidelity qubits are infinitely more valuable than a thousand noisy ones. Investors and policymakers should reward fidelity, not headline counts.
DO blend EU and Member State budgets. Fragmentation from Spain to Denmark risks sub-additionality. The 2019 Coordinated Plan on AI is a starting point, but this time, efforts must be complemented by a complexity-based analysis of who has the capabilities to deliver and which collaborations are most likely to produce breakthroughs.
DO blend public and private capital. From VC funds like Quantonation and 55North to philanthropies, capital must be patient and competent. Horizon Europe negotiations and the recently launched ScaleUp Fund can anchor public-private-philanthropic cooperation.
DO launch a properly designed R&D moonshot. Time-bound targets, identifiable scientific breakthroughs, maximum spillover – and, above all, competent programme managers able to orchestrate efforts into an agile theory of change. The Heitor Group and the recent Ehler reports on FP10 both point in the right direction with their ARPA-style portfolio approach.
DON’T sacrifice competitiveness on the altar of sovereignty. There are countless ways for the EU to be fully sovereign and spectacularly non-competitive. Vendor lock-in of the kind already visible in NVIDIA’s quantum positioning is the real risk. Sovereignty can be achieved through mutual interdependence, standardisation and a diversification of partnerships – including a coalition of middle powers.
DON’T pretend to go it alone. Like CERN, a quantum moonshot must bring the best expertise together. Canada, South Korea, Singapore, Japan and India are all Horizon Europe associates investing seriously in quantum. Despite legitimate research-security concerns, there’s no other way for the EU to stay relevant. All alternatives lead to a dead end.
DO fix systemic problems. Without a suitable business environment and talent attraction, quantum will follow other technologies into European oblivion. The US and China – for all their problems – have grasped that energy, quantum, supply chains and AI form a single industrial puzzle. If Europe keeps legislating one Act at a time, it will never produce a coherent industrial strategy for the next decade and beyond.
Whilst the above list may look like a tall ask, it is possible for Europe to finally get it right with quantum – because quantum is likely to be one of the most important technological frontiers of the twenty-first century.
