Measuring fiscal spillovers in EMU and beyond: A Global VAR approach

Friday, 16 December 2016
CEPS Working Documents
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This paper empirically identifies and measures fiscal spillovers in the EU countries using a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model. Our aim is to look at the sign and the absolute values of fiscal spillovers in a country-wise perspective and at the time profile (impulse response) of the impacts of fiscal shocks. We find moderate spillover effects of fiscal policy shocks originating in Germany and France. However, there is significant variation regarding the magnitude of the spillovers among destination countries and country clusters. Furthermore, we find some evidence that spillovers generated by German or French fiscal spillovers are stronger for EMU than non-EMU countries in Europe.

Ansgar Belke is Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Duisburg-Essen and Associate Senior Fellow at CEPS. Thomas Osowski is a Researcher at the University of Duisburg-Essen.