The distinguishing characteristic of the EU’s next eastward enlargement is that it is more security-driven than before. Negotiating accession with a country at war is different from the theoretical deterrence drive of previous integration rounds or from providing a prescription for post-conflict peacebuilding in the Western Balkans. Defence owns the hard meaning of the concept of security: having the military capabilities to prevail by force if diplomacy fails.
On this front, the EU’s offer for Ukraine’s future membership falls short of expectations. To be credible, the accession negotiation framework will have to be made more conflict-sensitive and backed up by stronger security guarantees – and not mere commitments.
This commentary originally appeared on the website of the International Centre for Defence and Security, Estonia.
