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30 May 2013

Quantitative Reference Scenario for the MEDPRO Project

Leonidas Paroussos / Kostas Fragkiadakis / Ioannis Charalampidis / Stella Tsani / Pantelis Capros

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In general equilibrium models the reference scenario is important, as the evaluation of the alternative policies modelled is based on their deviation from the reference scenario. The reference scenario relates to the development of an economic outlook for each region and sector of the model. This means that assumptions are made about the main drivers of growth, e.g. population growth and technical progress. This report provides the main assumptions used for the development of the reference scenario in the MEDPRO project. The report also provides a brief country and sectoral overview for each of the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries covered by the MEDPRO project.

Leonidas Paroussos, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Ioannis Charalampidis and Stella Tsani are Fellows at E3M Lab, Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (ICCS), National Technical University of Athens; Pantelis Capros is the Director of the E3M Lab.