03 Sep 2010

The Future of the Eurozone and Gold

Yonghyup Oh / Daniel Gros / Cinzia Alcidi / Paul De Grauwe

Download Publication


This report considers four short-term, alternative scenarios for the eurozone and analyses their possible implications for global economic trends and the gold market. Overall, the main findings suggest that in the near future, motives other than inflation hedging will be the main drivers of gold market dynamics. Growth in emerging economies, which are among the largest sources of gold demand, and financial market uncertainty, will be the most important ones. In particular, even if the worst scenario were to materialise and adverse global conditions could slow Asian growth, demand for gold from this region should not fall significantly. Moreover, even in the most optimistic scenario for the eurozone, global uncertainty will not evaporate easily. As a consequence, the gold price may continue to trend upwards for a period driven by investment demand from both the private sector and official investors.

Related Publications

Browse through the list of related publications.

The European added value of the Recovery and Resilience Facility

An assessment of the Austrian, Belgian and German plans

Where the (euro) buck stops

Facing the next big crisis with a better EU budget

The Next Revision of the Financial Regulation and the EU Budget Galaxy

How to safeguard and strengthen budgetary principles and parliamentary oversight

Optimal tariff versus optimal sanction

The case of European gas imports from Russia

Comparing and assessing recovery and resilience plans – Second edition

Italy, Germany, Spain, France, Portugal, Slovakia, Austria and Belgium

When the taps are turned off

How to get Europe through the next winter without Russian gas