We conducted a foresight exercise to explore how AI could reshape Europe’s innovation systems and labour markets by 2045, for the CEPS project on a European Ecosystem of Excellence in AI. Through participatory scenario building and backcasting with 21 experts, the exercise linked global governance and R&D dynamics (macro level) with technological change in the workplace (micro level). Two integrated futures emerged. One depicted globally coordinated, market-driven, exponential growth and automation. The other envisaged globally fragmented, government-led, slower innovation, which is human-centred.
The process revealed that Europe’s future competitiveness will depend less on technological speed than on institutional capacity – the ability to govern AI legitimately, distribute its gains fairly, and evaluate its social outcomes. Along both trajectories, effective procurement, worker participation, and evidence-based adaptation will be the foundations of an AI ecosystem that is both innovative and inclusive.
