To coordinate or not to coordinate?

A key question confronting the G20 leaders is the desirability of coordinating exit strategies. Empirical research suggests that demand spillovers from fiscal policy are sufficiently small that uncoordinated exits from fiscal stimulus programmes are unlikely to threaten global demand. This Commentary by Paul De Grauwe argues that that research is flawed as it was based on data and theory for economies near full employment – not today’s situation. He concludes that G20 leaders need to address fiscal and monetary stimulus coordination exit strategies.