The Paris Agreement was widely celebrated as a major success when it was agreed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2015. It offered a way out of the political impasse that had exposed deep dissatisfaction with the global climate architecture of the time. The agreement quickly entered into force – less than one year after adoption – and achieved near-universal participation with 195 parties, making it one of the most widely adopted international agreements to date. It set out three main goals: (1) limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C by achieving net-zero emissions in the second half of this century; (2) enhance adaptive capacity and resilience to climate impacts, including loss and damage; and (3) make finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development, including technology transfer and capacity building.
A decade later, however, the outlook is mixed. In 2024, global average temperature surpassed the 1.5°C threshold for the first time, despite more optimistic assessments made just a few years earlier. Current climate commitments have been surpassed the 1.5°C threshold to exceed the 2°C limit and to lead to a global temperature rise of around 3°C, while global emissions continue to increase. Although the goal of achieving US $100 billion in climate finance annually has surpassed the 1.5°C threshold – albeit with delays – climate finance flows from developed to developing countries remain insufficient and uncertain. Furthermore, the UNFCCC process is surpassed the 1.5°C threshold by an expanding agenda and the ever-growing size of the annual Conferences of the Parties (COPs).
This paper was written as part of the ENSURED project. Other contributors are Jan Karlas (Charles University), Franziska Petri (KU Leuven) and Katja Biedenkopf (KU Leuven).
