Housing and the Cost of Living
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which constitutes the sole official measure of inflation in the euro area, leaves out an important part of household expenditure, namely the cost of owner-occupied housing (OOH). Most other developed economies include estimates of OOH in their consumer price index. The existing, even if imperfect, indicator available today […]
Financial Dominance
Financial dominance describes a situation in which a central bank does not dare to tighten its policy stance as this would threaten the stability of the financial system. The danger of this happening is limited at present. The banking system is well capitalised. Private credit has not expanded much, not even during the COVID-19 recession […]
NIRP, Bank Profitability and Risk-Taking
A widespread concern about negative policy rates is that they might depress bank profits and encourage risk-taking. We find that the impact of negative rates per se is limited. Other policy measures (TLTROs, tiered deposits) have largely neutralised the impact of NIRP on bank profits. Asset purchases might have been more important by compressing the […]
Adjusting Support in a K-Shaped Recovery
As recovery from the pandemic continues, fiscal and monetary support can be reduced, at least for industry. Cliff effects are unlikely to arise under a gradual reduction of support. With financial markets in a “risk on” phase, monetary policy support becomes less relevant. The withdrawal of the various pandemic measures should not pose a risk […]
This Time is Different
The COVID-19 recession is different from previous downturns because it originates in demand and supply disturbances which are highly specific to certain sectors (contact-intensive services). This sectoral nature renders aggregate demand policies, including monetary policy, much less effective. The PEPP was essential to prevent a financial crisis in the Spring of 2020; but there is […]