INTERECONOMICS, Vol 45, No.1 January/February 2010

The Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Real Economy

INTERECONOMICS, Vol. 45, No. 1 January/February 2010

Selected articles contributed by CEPS free in PDF; others may be purchased individually (or the entire contents of the journal) from

Forum: The Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Real Economy

by D. Gros, C. Alcidi, M. Biggs, T. Mayer, B. Ark

The cost of the financial crisis to the real economy has so far remained underexamined, probably because of the difficulty in making such an assessment. The crisis was precipitated by an unsustainable bubble that artificially inflated economic figures, so what should be used as a benchmark for measuring the effects of the crisis on the real economy? How reliable are current estimates of the output gap? Could overestimating this indicator lead to underestimating the current risk of inflation? Finally, what effect will the crisis have on the declining long-term productivity gains in Europe and the USA, and what does this mean for potential output?

The articles of the forum can also be downloaded separately:

The Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Real Economy

by Daniel Gros and Cinzia Alcidi

The Output Gap Conundrum

by Michael Biggs and Thomas Mayer

Productivity, Sources of Growth and Potential Output in the Euro Area and the United States

by Bart van Ark

Article: EU Trade and Investment Policymaking After the Lisbon Treaty

by Stephen Woolcock

The ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon1 will have a number of potentially important implications for decision-making in EU2 external trade and investment policy. This article summarises the main changes and discusses some key implementing measures that will shape the medium to long-term impact of the treaty changes.