10 Mar 2022

When the taps are turned off

How to get Europe through the next winter without Russian gas

Daniel Gros

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There is no silver bullet.  Renewables or new conventional energy supplies will take years to become available at the scale needed.  However, high prices do induce substitution to other fuels and encourage energy savings – not only in Europe, but also in other markets, thus potentially freeing up gas for Europe. This CEPS Policy Insights paper makes the calculations to show that by considering Europe and Asia as one interconnected energy market, high gas prices could, on their own, bring about the necessary reduction in (global) gas demand to free up enough resources for Europe. This could be achieved even over a period as short as 9-12 months, thus in time to keep Europe warm and fully operational through the next winter, without having to rely on Russian gas.