28 Jul 2022

Time sequence of forced displacement into neighbouring countries

Mattia Di Salvo / Alexandre Ounnas / Doina Postica

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Over the last decade, the number of displaced individuals almost doubled, with around 40% of them being compelled to cross borders. Refugees and asylum seekers settle primarily in neighbouring countries, which are usually developing countries with limited resources and often precarious political situations.

This report aims to better understand cross-border displacement by analysing the time sequence from events potentially inducing displacement to migration into the neighbouring country. The results indicate that conflict events can have a positive long and lasting effect on displacement and significant effects can be seen five months after conflict events take place. Moreover, the response of cross-border displacement to conflict is hump-shaped, with the largest effect found one month after the event.

Evidence on the time sequence form disruption to displacement can support different stakeholders, as better knowledge of the timing and size of the displacement can help decision makers anticipate and plan responses in support of displaced and host populations.

This Report falls within the scope of the ITFLOWS H2020 project which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 882986. The ITFLOWS outputs reflect only the author’s view and therefore the Agency is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.