The eurozone is in recession and will show negative growth in 2012, notes Stefano Micossi in this new CEPS Policy Brief. Hopes that fiscal consolidation could spur growth by improving household and business confidence are not materialising, because in reality, domestic demand has been hit too hard by fiscal consolidation, and investment throughout the Union remains well below pre-crisis levels.
The author calls upon the European Council to consider launching a new growth initiative, centered on mobilising vast resources at EU level for investment in worthy projects of common interest Europe-wide. The key goal is to make sure that there is light at the end of the tunnel, lest at some stage the unbearable social and political costs of adjustment lead to a breakdown of domestic political systems and disorderly default.
Stefano Micossi is Director General of Assonime, Visiting Professor at the College of Europe in Bruges, Member of the Board of Directors of CEPS and Chairman of the Board of CIR Group.