Regime changes through taking to the streets do not always progress peacefully and produce intended results. The recent successful revolutions that have brought down two North African dictators have also inspired reform advocates in the EU’s Eastern neighbourhood. The coming months are expected to see developments of major if not decisive importance especially for the future of Armenia. Given the uncertainty of the eventual outcome in Armenia, this Policy Brief contemplates four possible scenarios for the country’s future development and suggests possible responses from the EU. The revolutions of the Arab world caught everyone by surprise. There should be no surprises regarding the Union’s Eastern neighbour Armenia.
Hrant Kostanyan is a visiting researcher at CEPS and a PhD candidate at the University of Ghent.