01 Jul 2005

Scenarios for Global Ageing

An Investigation with the INGENUE 2 World Model

Michel Aglietta / Vladimir Borgy / Jean Chateau / Michel Juillard / Jacques Le Cacheux / Gilles Le Garrec / Vincent Touzé

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European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes (ENEPRI) Research Report No. 9, 45 pages

This paper explores the consequences of pension reforms in Western Europe in a world economy setting. Whereas various economic and social consequences of population ageing have been investigated in OECD countries, very few analyses have explicitly taken the worldwide aspect of the problem into account. In order to do so, this report relies on the latest version of the INGENUE World Model (2). This applied, international, overlapping-generations, general-equilibrium model of the world economy has been built specifically to analyse the international capital flows and growth dynamics induced by the different degrees of population ageing taking place in the various regions of the world. After a description of the major features of the baseline scenario of the model for the world economy over the next 50 years, the authors explore the domestic and international macroeconomic consequences of two scenarios of pension reform in Western Europe as well as their intergenerational distributional effects. These scenarios are then compared with a specific migration scenario, making use of the new features of the INGENUE 2 model.