24 Jan 2007

Quid Ukraine’s Strategic Security?

Alexander Bogomolov / James Sherr / Arkady Moshes / F. Stephen Larrabee

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ESF Working Paper No. 24 / 39 pages

The collapse of the Orange coalition marked a turning point in Ukraine’s political direction. Although it had previously sought closer ties with the West and key institutions such as NATO and the EU, today it’s foreign policy orientation is less clear. This collection of European Security Forum papers gathers authoritative views on Ukraine’s security outlook, considering its relations with the West and its powerful neighbour, Russia.
An in-depth analysis of the political scene is given by Alexander Bogomolov, shedding light on the threats to Ukraine’s democratic development, its NATO debate and the pressing issues of energy supply. In his assessment of Ukraine’s security risks, James Sherr argues that the internal condition of Ukraine (particularly it security and defence institutions) and not its foreign policy is the main factor defining the ‘art of the possible’ in its external relationships. Arkady Moshes underscores the argument that the key to Ukraine’s strategic security is the continuation of internal reforms, holding that its Western partners should do their best to help promote them. Finally, F. Stephen Larrabee considers whether Ukraine will continue to pursue a policy of Euro-Atlantic integration, including eventual membership in NATO, or if Russian influence over Ukraine’s internal and external policies is likely to increase.