19 Dec 2007

Health Expenditure Scenarios in the New Member States

Country Report on Hungary

András Gábos / Róbert Iván Gál

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This country report aims to give an estimation of the development of public health care expenditures in Hungary during the first half of the 21st century. The model used for analysis is the ILO social budget model. Since this model is a full budget model, it includes not only the expenditure side, but the revenue side also. The structure of the model is presented in Section 2 of this report following a discussion of the long-term projections recently prepared for the Hungarian health care system (Section 1). The third section contains a review of main databases used by the model, while the fourth describes the underlying assumptions and development of main variables of the baseline scenario. The second part of the same section discusses alternative assumptions, aiming to provide sensitivity analyses for the baseline scenario. Results of both the baseline scenario and sensitivity analyses are presented in Section 5. Section 6 summarises these results and draws conclusions, while the final section formulates some policy recommendations based on the findings of our model (Section 7).