16 Dec 2011

The gloomy scenario of Italy’s default

Diego Valiante

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This Commentary explores what will happen if Italy is not able to implement structural reforms and if international institutions, such as the EFSF and the IMF, do not intervene with sufficient resources to prevent Europe’s second-largest economy from defaulting on its debt. It warns that the Italian economic system would certainly embark on a perverse path that would follow three phases: liquidity crisis and insolvency; deflationary pressures; and finally inflationary pressures and economic and political instability.

The author, Diego Valiante, is ECMI Head of Research and CEPS Research Fellow.