Ceasefire and peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine opened on 15-16 May 2025 in Istanbul. While there was no breakthrough and the prospects of a summit-level meeting of Presidents Putin, Zelenskyy and Trump appear to be receding, the start of a formal negotiation process will nonetheless lead the millions of Ukrainian refugees in Europe to ponder their futures.
With European leaders also formulating proposals with Ukraine, it will soon be time to focus on the 4.3 million Ukrainian refugees currently residing in the EU (1% of the EU’s population, and close to 10% of Ukraine’s). This is the number registered under the ‘Temporary Protection’ regime, extended until March 2026. It’s then unknown whether the EU will further extend it or resort to other solutions, depending crucially on whether there will be a durable peace.
Fortunately, survey data and policy analyses provide rich information on the current state of Ukrainian refugees in the EU and the various policy options available for when the Temporary Protection ends.
The survey data suggests two main points. First, the generous and wide-ranging Temporary Protection regime has been overall successful – albeit with various limitations in individual host countries – in providing decent living conditions and opportunities for Ukrainian refugees to integrate. Second, over the last three years there has been a steady decline in the number of respondents indicating that they would ‘rather or are ‘definitely planning to return’ to Ukraine, from 74% at the end of 2022 to 43% at the end of 2024.
