01 Jun 2005

EMU at Risk, 7th Annual Report of the CEPS Macroeconomic Policy Group

Thomas Mayer / Daniel Gros / Angel Ubide

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This is the seventh annual report issued by the CEPS Macroeconomic Policy Group since it was reconstituted at the start of economic and monetary union in 1999.This distinguished group of economists argues that a combination of slow growth, inadequate policy responses and newly emerging intra-area divergences are putting EMU at risk. Against this background, the MPG recommends that the ECB should downgrade its short-term concern about cyclical economic developments and pursue a monetary policy aimed at preserving the value of the euro in the long-term. Moreover, it urges the core countries to urgently return to fiscal discipline, both in their own interest and to set an example that would allow them to exert pressure on potential soft currency countries to do the same.