20 Jun 2014

ECB Policy and Eurozone Fragility: Was De Grauwe Right?

Ana-Maria Fuertes / Elena Kalotychou / Orkun Saka

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The authors test Paul De Grauwe’s eurozone fragility hypothesis using a time window around the announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme. The findings reveal significant contagion from Spain to other eurozone countries, but solely during the pre-announcement period. The authors conclude that in this case the OMT programme has succeeded in mitigating the self-fulfilling dynamics within the eurozone.

Ana-Maria Fuertes is Professor in Financial Econometrics at Cass Business School, City University London; Elena Kalotychou is a Senior Lecturer at Cass Business School, and Orkun Saka is a Doctoral Researcher at Cass Business School, City University London.