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Demographic Epidemiologic Projections of Long-Term Care Needs in Selected European Countries: Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland

by Luc Bonneux / Nicole Van der Gaag / Govert Bijwaart
30 March 2012

Demographic Epidemiologic Projections of Long-Term Care Needs in Selected European Countries: Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland

Luc Bonneux / Nicole Van der Gaag / Govert Bijwaart

Work Package 2 of the ANCIEN project assesses the future numbers of care-dependent elderly in four selected countries: Spain, Poland, Germany and the Netherlands. The estimates are consistent with the available disability data and the mortality forecasts of the EUROPOP 2008 scenarios. The results show the effects of  assumptions about how old age disability and mortality are related, and assess the effects of smoking and BMI.

The main determinant of future numbers of disabled elderly turns out to be the demographic ageing of the large baby boom cohorts. The impact of life extension depends on the correlation of old age disability and mortality, and is moderate under reasonable assumptions. Obesity and (quitting) smoking have very little effect.


About the Authors


  • Author
    Luc Bonneux
    Luc Bonneux
  • Author
    Nicole Van der Gaag
    Nicole Van der Gaag
  • Author
    Govert Bijwaart
    Govert Bijwaart
Demographic Epidemiologic Projections of Long-Term Care Needs in Selected European Countries: Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland
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