30 Mar 2012

Demographic Epidemiologic Projections of Long-Term Care Needs in Selected European Countries

Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland

Luc Bonneux / Nicole Van der Gaag / Govert Bijwaart

0
Download Publication

1387 Downloads

Work Package 2 of the ANCIEN project assesses the future numbers of care-dependent elderly in four selected countries: Spain, Poland, Germany and the Netherlands. The estimates are consistent with the available disability data and the mortality forecasts of the EUROPOP 2008 scenarios. The results show the effects of  assumptions about how old age disability and mortality are related, and assess the effects of smoking and BMI.

The main determinant of future numbers of disabled elderly turns out to be the demographic ageing of the large baby boom cohorts. The impact of life extension depends on the correlation of old age disability and mortality, and is moderate under reasonable assumptions. Obesity and (quitting) smoking have very little effect.

Related Publications

Browse through the list of related publications.

Walling off Responsibility?

The Pushbacks at the EU’s External Borders with Belarus

A transatlantic divide?

Transitory inflation in Europe but persistent in the US

The end of an era

The Polish Constitutional Court’s judgment on the primacy of EU law and its effects on mutual trust

Deepening EU-Moldovan Relations

Updating and upgrading in the shadow of Covid-19 Third edition

Deepening EU-Ukrainian Relations

Updating and upgrading in the shadow of Covid-19 Third edition

Deepening EU-Georgian Relations

Updating and upgrading in the shadow of Covid-19 Third edition