22 Mar 2017

An Assessment of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU27

Michael Emerson / Matthias Busse / Mattia Di Salvo / Daniel Gros / Jacques Pelkmans

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A team of economists at CEPS was commissioned by the Policy Department on Economic and Scientific Policies for the Committee on Internal Market and Consumer Protection to assess the likely economic impact of Brexit on EU27, together with some scenarios for the terms of the UK’s secession. For the EU 27, the losses were found to be virtually insignificant, and hardly noticeable in the aggregate. For the UK, however, the losses could be highly significant, with various estimates running up to ten times greater as a share of GDP. Impacts on some member states – in particular Ireland – and some sectors in the EU27 could be more pronounced than the average for the EU27.

Michael Emerson is Associate Senior Research Fellow, Matthias Busse is Researcher, Mattia Di Salvo is Research Assistant, Daniel Gros is Director and Jacques Pelkmans is Senior Research Fellow – all at CEPS.

The in-depth study is also published on the European Parliament’s webpage. It is published on the CEPS website with the kind permission of the European Parliament.