In-person Workshop upon invitation – under Chatham House rules
As the commitment to achieving climate neutrality by 2050 grows, the gradual phase-out of (unabated) fossil fuels is being enshrined in the domestic policies of many nations. Transitioning away from (unabated) natural gas is a crucial element of decarbonising not only power generation but also end-use sectors, through increased electrification and low-carbon feedstock and fuels.
In this transition, an orderly phase-out of natural gas is essential – thus, ensuring secure supplies in the near term without creating lock-in dependencies, reducing greenhouse gas emissions across the value chain, and future-proofing existing and new gas infrastructure for low-carbon alternatives. However, shifting market dynamics, such as the increasing risks of liquefied natural gas (LNG) oversupply during the Trump presidency, raise the critical question of whether “cheap” gas will slow down a shift to low-carbon sources.
These developments require close scrutiny. This workshop will bring together experts, policymakers, and industry to discuss the evolving role of natural gas and, particularly, LNG in the decarbonisation pathways. This workshop aims to foster an exchange of ideas by sharing insights on supply dynamics, emissions standards, and methane reduction technologies. We will also explore whether and how LNG can support the energy transition and hear perspectives from Japanese experts.
Agenda:
10:30-11:30 Session 1. Setting the scene: security of supply and gas price signals for decarbonisation
Natural gas imports will continue to play a critical role in many national energy mixes, albeit with varying degrees of prominence across regions. In the EU, LNG has increasingly replaced Russian pipeline gas since 2022, prompting a re-evaluation of gas supply architecture. Japan, meanwhile, remains one of the world’s top LNG importers, relying heavily on it as a cornerstone of its energy system.
As nations embrace net-zero, a critical challenge is securing reliable access to LNG while avoiding long-term structural reliance on fossil fuels. Natural gas’ flexibility is critical for supporting cleaner, weather-dependent energy systems. However, this transitional role must not hinder the development of low-carbon flexibility resources or delay the adoption of alternative low-carbon feedstocks and fuels.
Gas price signals also have a pivotal role in driving the energy transition. Excessively high prices can destabilise economies and reduce public support for the green transition, while persistently low prices may disincentivise investment in low-carbon alternatives. This session will explore the ways natural gas can support rather than obstruct the shift to a low-carbon future and what gas supply strategies can help with that.
Speakers:
- Haitze Siemers, Senior Advisor to Director-General, DG ENER, European Commission
- Hiroshi Hashimoto, Senior Fellow, Energy Security Unit, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
- Gergely Molnar, Energy Analyst – Natural Gas, International Energy Agency
- Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Global Research Scholar, the Center on Global Energy Policy, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Moderator:
- Irina Kustova, Head of the Energy Programme, Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
11:45-12:45 Session 2. Emissions across the LNG value chain
Reducing emissions across the LNG value chain is a critical priority. Methane leakages remain a significant challenge, necessitating advancements in detection, repair and maintenance technologies, as well as the establishment of robust standards and certifications to address this issue effectively. The EU’s discussion surrounding the adoption of methane intensity thresholds, including their application to LNG imports, merits a detailed examination. Voluntary carbon offsetting for “green” or “carbon-neutral” LNG is gaining traction in certain regions, including Japan. However, concerns persist about their alignment with long-term, effective mitigation strategies.
Additionally, future-proofing LNG infrastructure is becoming increasingly important, with new infrastructure being built in the EU as part of post-2022 diversification and in well-established (i.e. Japan) and emerging LNG markets. Questions are being raised about retrofitting LNG importing terminals and LNG carriers to be hydrogen- or ammonia-ready.
Speakers:
- Haitze Siemers, Senior Advisor to Director-General, DG ENER, European Commission
- Felix Matthes, Research Coordinator for Energy & Climate, Oko-Institute; member of the Expert Commission for Monitoring the Energy Transition, the German-Japanese Energy Transition Council, and the German Hydrogen Council
- Maria Olczak, Research Fellow, OIES
- Francis Browne, Global Head, Generating Fuels and Electricity Pricing, S&P Global Commodity Insights
Moderator:
- Andris Piebalgs, Chair of the Implementation Committee of IMEO; Board Member CEPS; Senior Research Fellow, Florence School of Regulation, European University Institute; Former Commissioner for Energy and former Commissioner for Development
A breakfast will be offered starting from 10:00.
