Throughout spring 2019, CEPS Energy Climate House has reviewed major recent studies on the future of gas to identify key question for the European gas sector in a 2050 low-carbon economy perspective. In the draft report – to be made available within 2 weeks or so – we have identified the following key questions:
- What assumptions made in scenario design are the most realistic for:
a) GHG emissions reduction target for 2050
b) Technological developments and scale-up for CCS, biomethane and hydrogen (blue and green)
- Short-term switch to gas and long-term implications on investment in exploration and infrastructure
- Gas as a flexibility source: What role will gas play as a flexibility source for renewable energy? Has the need for back-up for renewable intermittency been exaggerated?
- What is the role of blue (or grey) hydrogen for the fully decarbonised European economy in 2050? What implications does this have for the viability of hydrogen? Competitiveness of green versus blue hydrogen: role and assumptions on
a) Variable costs of electricity and natural gas
b) Cost for CCS
c) Production potential for blue and green hydrogen and implications for current gas infrastructure
- Will methane and hydrogen compete for the same markets in 2050? In what sectors will each of them be most relevant? What are the implications for the transmission and distribution strategy?
Following an introduction by the European Commission, discussion will be organized in several panels around the 5 questions. Note that during the meeting additional issues might emerge.