Donbas: the price of peace

Sociological research shows that Russia's attacks against Ukraine led to dramatic changes in the identity and geopolitical attitudes of Ukrainians. They strongly reject the ‘Eurasian vector’ and for the first time the number of NATO supporters in Ukraine prevails. Also, Ukrainians do not think that fulfillment of Russian demands will lead to peace. In March, Russia recognised 'passports’ issued by the so-called 'people's republics’ of Luhansk and Donetsk which, in turn, 'nationalised' enterprises registered in Ukraine. The government in Kyiv responded with a trade blockade. Kyiv’s official logic follows the sequence defined in the Minsk agreements: political settlement in Donbas may come only after security preconditions are met. Until today, Western partners have backed this approach up with sanctions. But what is the view from the US under President Trump? And what might be the impact of the outcome of the forthcoming elections in France and Germany? Will Washington, Paris and Berlin pressure Kyiv to provide a 'special status’ to and accept election results in the separatist areas before Russian troops leave Donbas? Will the Minsk process survive? These and other questions will be debated in view of new sociological research data gathered from respondents in Donbas and across Ukraine.