Launch event of the Shell ‘New Lens’ Scenarios.
Two years after the presentation of its “Signals and Signposts” energy scenarios to 2050, Royal Dutch Shell have issued new scenarios called “Mountains and Oceans”, which offer a perspective of two future worlds that bring into sharper focus possible outcomes of today’s choices.
The “New Lens” scenarios study provides an in-depth analysis of how economic, social and political forces might play out over the 21st century, as well as their consequences for the global energy system and environment. They use a number of “lenses” to focus on the drivers that are shaping the global energy system and environment and look further ahead than comparable analyses – mainly to 2060 for the energy system but also out to 2100 for climate implications and renewable energy developments.
The “Mountains” scenario sees a strong role for governments whose far-reaching policy measures help to develop more compact cities and transform the global transport network. New policies unlock plentiful natural gas resources and accelerate carbon capture and storage technology, supporting a cleaner energy system. The “Oceans” scenario describes a more prosperous and volatile world where energy demand surges and power is more widely distributed, with governments taking longer to agree major decisions. Oil and coal remain part of the energy mix but by the 2070s solar becomes the world’s largest energy source. The scenarios also explore the paradoxes and pathways countries face and identify key features of a coming geopolitical transition.
The debate following the presentation of the two scenarios will focus on the hard choices that lie ahead for Europe’s policymakers, with a particular focus on choices relevant to the post-2020 EU energy and climate framework. Which targets for 2030 would be most effective in driving the objectives of climate and energy policy? Which elements of the framework for climate and energy policies could be strengthened to better promote job creation, growth and competitiveness? Are new financing instruments or arrangements required to support the new 2030 framework?