The US Presidential election: How are Americans likely to vote?


Seven weeks prior to the US presidential elections, CEPS invited Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research of the Pew Research Center, to reflect on the mood of the American electorate regarding the unusual race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. In order to gain a better understanding of what will determine the outcome, Doherty gave a comprehensive overview and assessment of the socio-economic voting patterns, which will have a significant effect on the success of the respective candidates. He drew attention to the intensified age differentials as well as gender gaps in the US electorate and highlighted the importance of the ‘Millennials’ (population aged 18 to 35 as of 2016). In discussing the deep discontentment expressed over the choice of presidential candidates by both Democratic and Republican voters, he flagged this election as a choice between “the lesser of two evils”. The turnout seems to be the crucial parameter determining the final result of this election and the ability of the candidates to mobilise the respective voter groups to come to the ballot-box on November 8th will be decisive.