EU/Ukraine project

CEPS has won in open competitive tender a contract from the European Commission to review the feasibility, possible design, and costs and benefits of a free trade area between Ukraine and the EU. The team led by CEPS and headed by Michael Emerson also includes the Institute for World Economics at the University of Kiev and the International Centre for Policy Studies in Kiev. The project was initiated on the 6th of September and the final report is due by the end of the year 2005. A first mission to Kiev was undertaken from 11-15 September, with initial consultations with the Ukrainian authorities, international and European diplomatic missions, think tanks and business interests. Hearings will be conducted among stakeholders in Kiev in October, and also in the next weeks with business federations in Brussels. The timing of this project is of course highly sensitive in view of the present political turmoil in Kiev. However this study has to take a medium run perspective, possibly preparing the ground for official discussions on this subject that could be initiated after the next Ukrainian parliamentary elections in March 2006.
 

A simple and shallow free trade agreement, adding only the elimination of tariffs on trade in goods to the conditions for WTO accession, is the most easily feasible option, but would yield only modest benefits for Ukraine and less still for the EU. By contrast, a deep free trade agreement (or ‘FTA+’) with the EU, while posing more difficult issues of feasibility, could be a centrepiece of an economic strategy leading Ukraine into rapid growth. An FTA+ with the EU would entail an extensive, yet still selective, alignment of Ukraine’s external and internal market laws and standards with those of the EU. Politically, this step would be consistent with Ukraine’s ‘European choice’.

The country has little or no chance of becoming a prosperous economy and society without openness and integration into the European and global economy, alongside compliance with normal standards of advanced economic governance at home. Not being a natural resource-based economy, Ukraine has no choice but to develop a competitive and diversified economy centred primarily on industrial and service sectors. This point is underlined by the increase in the price of imported energy since the start of 2006.

Key Publications 

The Prospect of Deep Free Trade between the European Union and Ukraine, Michael Emerson (Project Director), T. Huw Edwards, Ildar Gazizullin, Matthias Lücke, Daniel Müller-Jentsch, Vira Nanivska,Valeriy Pyatnytskiy, Andreas Schneider, Rainer Schweickert, Olexandr Shevtsov and Olga Shumylo, April 2006, Buy Online

Democratisation in the European Neighbourhood, Michael Emerson (ed), CEPS Paperback, October 2005, Buy Online

Europeanization and Conflict Resolution: Case Studies from the European Periphery, Bruno Coppieters, Michael Emerson, Michel Huysseune, Tamara Kovziridze, Gergana Noutcheva, Nathalie Tocci and Marius Vahl, Academia press 2004 . Available for download from website of Journal of Ethnopolitics and Minority Issues in Europe.

More Than Neighbours,  project on EU-Ukraine relations organised by the Stefan Batory Foundation (Warsaw) and the International Renaissance Foundation (Kyiv) in 2002-2004. The final report, More than Neighbours, was first presented at CEPS on 13 February 2004.

The Elephant and the Bear: The European Union, Russia and their Near Abroads, Michael Emerson, with Nathalie Tocci, Marius Vahl and Nicholas Whyte, October 2001 Buy online

Working Documents

No. 240. Ukraine and the European Neighbourhood Policy: Ensuring the Free Movement of Goods and Services (Olga Shumylo, March 2006)

No. 238. Moldova's Convergence with the Acquis - A Pro-Growth and Pro-Integration Strategy (Oxana Gutu, March 2006)

No. 237. Promoting Democracy through Civil Society: How to Step up the EU's Policy towards the Eastern Neighbourhood (Kristi Raik, February 2006)
 

Policy Briefs

No. 151. The EU's limited response to Belarus' pseudo 'new foreign policy' (George Dura, February 2008)

No. 109. ‘Outsourcing’ de facto Statehood: Russia and the Secessionist Entities in Georgia and Moldova (Nicu Popescu, July 2006)

No. 98. What should the Community of Democratic Choice Do? (Michael Emerson, March 2006)

No.81. Parties of Power as Roadblocks to Democracy: The Cases of Ukraine and Egypt (Madalena Resende and Hendrik Kraetzschmar, August 2005)

No. 73 The Europeanisation of the Transnistrian Conflict (Marius Vahl, May 2005)

No. 57 Is Ukraine Turning Away from Europe? (Marius Vahl, October 2004)

No. 25 Conflict Resolution for Moldova and Transdniestria through Federalisation? (Bruno Coppieters and Michael Emerson, August 2002)

No. 7.Friendly Schengen Borderland Policy on the New Borders of an Enlarged EU and Its Neighbours, (Joanna Apap, Jakub Boratynski, Michael Emerson, Grzegorz Gromadzki, Marius Vahl, and Nicholas Whyte, September 2001) 

CEPS Commentaries

EU membership gives Romania new opportunities in its relations with Moldova (George Dura, January 2007)
Fast-Forward for EU-Ukraine Relations? (Marius Vahl, March 2005)

Sobering Elections to East and West (Michael Emerson, November 2004)

Should the Transnistrian tail wag the Bessarabian dog? (Michael Emerson, January 2004)

 Transforming Transdniestria? (Marius Vahl, October 2001)

Narva-Ivangorod, the ultimate Fortress Europe (Michael Emerson, July 2001)

 Galicia, Schengen and quid Ukraine? (Michael Emerson, June 2001)

From Great Games to Strategic Cooperation ( Michael Emerson, October 2000)

Enlargement Fundamentals: Four Scenarios ( Michael Emerson, April 2000)

Dividing along the Polish-Ukrainian frontier? (Marius Vahl, January 2001)

The growing divide (Marius Vahl, December 2000)

Conference Volumes

New European Borders and Security Cooperation: Promoting Trust in an Enlarged European Union, Report with Recommendations on the Reshaping of Europe’s Borders, 6-7 July 2001, Joanna Apap (ed.), October 2001, Free Online Version (PDF Format)

The Prospects of Deep Free Trade between the European Union and Ukraine, Michael Emerson(Project Director), T. Huw Edwards, Ildar Gazizullin, Matthias Lücke, Daniel Müller-Jentsch, Vira Nanivska, Valeriy Pyanytskiy, Andreas Schneider, Rainer Schweickert, Olexandr Shevtsov and Olga Shumylo, April 2006.

This study examines the feasibility, content and likely economic impact of a free trade agreement between the EU and Ukraine.
 

Nevertheless, there is evidence suggesting that the combination of economic openness, convergence on modern European and international standards of economic regulation and corporate governance and proximity to EU markets could lead to a sustainable high growth path for Ukraine. The country’s economic paradigm could change drastically, with a re-branding of its reputation and with its industry entering into the European and global supply chain. Such a strategy would also be of value to the EU economy in meeting the challenges of globalisation and Asian competition.