Integrating Europe's Transport Systems

Speakers: Claude Gressier, Ingenieur Général des Ponts et des Chausées, Ministry of Transport of France
                David Kernohan, Head of the CEPS Trade Policy Unit, Rapporteur of the CEPS Task Force on Transport
 
Date: 18 October 2006
 
The research presented by M Gressier, for the Conseil General, took a scenario approach and examined long-term transport projections up to 2050. This time frame was chosen so as to fit infrastructure-building delays (15 to 20 years) and in order to assist in long-term policy making processes.
 
Drawing from the past
Drawing from a retrospective of what shaped the transformation in France’s transport sector over the past 30 to 50 years, five leading issues were identified as factors of change:
- Wealth creation and accumulation: transit was found to grow commensurately with GDP with coal and minerals transport disappearing but transport of finished goods increasing significantly.
- Economic ambition and market liberalization
- Changing lifestyles (increased car and second residence ownership and increased leisure time)
- Decreasing energy prices and stable availability of resources
- Rapid and successful development of rapid transit systems.
 
The outcome of these trends has been that energy consumption has undergone a fivefold increase. By 2000, transport accounted for 27% of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
 
Four scenarios exploring possible futures:
The common basis of the four scenarios, extending out to 2050, included stability in the speed of transport modes, technical progress and a decline in oil consumption. In all four scenarios alternative energy costs remained superior to that of oil and a tax or an incentive system is necessary to lower oil consumption.
The alternative energy sources suggested included rechargeable hybrid vehicles and biofuels drawn from cropland with zero net CO2 emissions.
 
A strong accent was also put on the geo-political and geo-economical context while building the four scenarios. Four drivers were examined: European integration, economic globalization, environmental disruptions and political crises and governance.
 
Scenario 1 assumed worldwide governance – in the form of a high carbon tax, for example - and incentives for environment-friendly industry development. It resulted in the birth of a highly-efficient energy industry, a GDP growth of 1.5% and a biomass share of total fuels consumption of 50%, which could be fulfilled using a third of France’s unfarmed land (estimated oil barrel price of $30).
 
Scenario 2 assumed European isolationism and decline. It led to slowed economic and revenue growth (1% GDP growth rate) and a biomass share of total fuels consumption of 8% (estimated oil barrel price of $60).
 
Scenario 3 assumed a tightly-integrated and enlarged Europe – that is the successful political integration of the Mediterranean region, Russia and the Caucasus region in the EU or in close partnership agreements. It resulted in trade-driven wealth accumulation with a GDP growth rate of 2% and a biomass share of total fuels consumption of 20% (estimated oil barrel price of $ 60).
 
Scenario 4 assumed inward-looking European governance, regionalization and protectionism, in a context of worldwide energy crisis which may result from political conflict, energy shocks and climate shifts, demographic and economic changes, especially due to migration, changes in behavior as, for example, China and Japan selling their dollar reserves, and the desire for added security and safety. However, these crisis hypotheses were not explored in details as they imply significant consequences all economical fields and should be analyzed in a broader spectrum. This scenario resulted in high energy costs and the EU becoming a regional magnet, a GDP growth rate of 1.5% and a biomass share of total fuels consumption of 30% (estimated oil barrel price of $ 120).
 
Key results: Policy and strategic insights
The four scenario outcomes suggest that the growth in personal mobility should slow down since the passenger car market has reached maturity and demand is flattening: time devoted to transport should remain stable, average speeds are not going to increase, while motor vehicle and air transport costs are likely to increase.
Growth in freight traffic should also slow down since European economies are becoming more service intensive and international transit flows should increase more than national. This should result in higher concentration at main ports and transit corridors (except in scenario 2).
 
Major opportunities for low-carbon alternatives to road and air transport are needed and could be provided in large metropolitan areas, by harnessing the TGV network, and on bulk freight corridors (especially in the Rhône Valley and along the Paris-Spain axe). However, roads will remain the dominant transportation mode, accounting for about 85% of both passenger and freight transport. The efficiency of road transport must therefore be a priority.
 
What is truly at stake?
- Preparing for the “post-oil” era and guarding against detrimental climate change by prioritizing R&D (among which rechargeable hybrid vehicle, carbon sequestration in power generation and synthetic fuels should be looked at first), setting more ambitious standards with (and for) industry at the European level and setting efficient global, or at least regional, governance targets on carbon issues. A global consensus between the private and public sectors as well as between nations is needed.
- For France, this will mean identifying future bottlenecks: building high-speed lines serving the Atlantic coast, southern and northern France; developing Paris and Nice airports; Marseille and Le Havre ports; and finally improving traffic fluidity on the important Atlantic coast and the Rhone valley transit channels.
 
See the slides of Mr. Gressier's Presentation. Read the text of the study by the Conseil Général des Ponts et des Chaussées.