Date: 26 January 2006
 
Speakers: Agnieszka Komorowska, Stefan Batory Foundation
               Janusz Onyszkiewicz, MEP, Vice-President of the European Parliament, Member of the EP Delegation for relations with Belarus
               Pirkka Tapiola, Member of the Policy Unit, Council of the EU
 
 

CEPS, the Stefan Batory Foundation (Warsaw) and the Open Society Institute (Brussels) were the organising institutions of the CEPS lunchtime meeting ”Belarus on the Eve of Presidential Elections: What should the EU do?”. The meeting was organised in connection with the presentation of the report entitled “Active and Cohesive: Tomorrow’s EU Policy towards Belarus” by Lubos Vesely (Association for International Affairs, Prague) and Grzegorz Gromadzki (Stefan Batory Foundation, Warsaw).

 
Agnieszka Komorowska of the Stefan Batory Foundation in Warsaw introduced the meeting by providing the background of the current situation in Belarus on the eve of the presidential elections scheduled for March 19. In this context, she referred to the state of affairs under the autocratic regime of Alexander Lukashenko; to the role of opposition candidate Alexander Milinkevich; and to possible options for the EU, especially in terms of civil society support.
 
The ensuing panel discussion, moderated by Michael Emerson, began with the presentation of the above-mentioned report by the authors. Lubos Vesely presented an assessment of the internal situation in Belarus, which he argued now resembles quite closely that of the Czech Republic before the ‘Velvet Revolution’ of 1989. In relation to the elections, he noted that although the Belarusian Minister of Foreign Affairs has invited the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (ESCR) to monitor the elections, one cannot expect that these will be free and fair.
 
Grzegorz Gromadzki focused on the features of a possible EU strategy towards Belarus. He argued that this strategy should be characterised by a new philosophy of the EU approach in which coordination among EU actors, short- and long-term measures, new types of assistance and dialogue with Russia figure among the highest priorities. Secondly, he argued that the EU should organise its activities towards Belarus for the period before the elections, after the elections and in the long term. Lastly, he spoke about the need for new instruments, which should include the appointment of a Special EU Representative for Belarus; the formation of an ad-hoc group of friendly EU member states promoting actions for a democratic Belarus, and the establishment of a European Democracy Agency.
 
Discussants were Janusz Onyszkiewicz, Vice-President of the European Parliament and Pirkka Tapiola of the Policy Unit of the EU Council. Onyszkiewicz noted that the EU has in its budget quite substantial funds to be used in the neighbourhood, especially the European Human Rights and Democracy Instrument. While the efficiency of this fund is extremely low, the EU has the carrot of fairly broad assistance programmes. Moreover, although Lukashenko is not interested in cooperating with the EU, the Belarusian economy depends on the EU more than it used it: he noted that this is the first year in which exports to the EU amount to 44% of the total Belarusian exports, compared to 36% to Russia. Pirkka Tapiola noted that many of the recommendations in the presented report are being discussed already and that the EU policy on Belarus is evolving. He also pointed out that although the EU is often accused of isolating Belarus, it is the Lukashenko regime that is isolating the country. The priority, in this sense, is to have access to the population. Moreover, while the EU cannot support an opposition candidate as such, it does support the democratic process and Milinkevich is playing an important role in this context. Democratisation, he concluded, is an inevitable process: the goal must be on how to make transformation sustainable.