This study aims at assessing the socio-economic and environmental effects of different societal and human development scenarios and climate change in the water-scarce southern and eastern Mediterranean. The study develops a two-stage modelling methodology that includes an econometric analysis for the southern and eastern Mediterranean region as a whole and a detailed, integrated socio-ecological assessment focusing on Jordan, Syria and Morocco. The results show that water resources will be under increasing stress in future years.

Against a background of decades of regulatory reforms aimed at fostering integration, promoting competition, efficiency and productivity growth in the financial industry, both in developed and developing countries, in this MEDPRO Technical Report the authors seek to assess the outcomes of these reform processes on the dynamics of bank efficiency – via the estimation of stochastic meta-frontiers – and convergence for a large sample of countries over the period 1997-2010.

Casual observation shows that that the financial systems in the southern and eastern Mediterranean are unable (or unwilling) to divert the financial resources that are available to them as funding opportunities to private enterprises. Using a sample of northern and southern Mediterranean countries for the years 1985 to 2009, this study empirically assesses the reasons underlying such conditions.

Adaptation to climate change in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries is particularly relevant because of the strong expected effects on the region and the sensitivity of important sectors like agriculture and tourism to climate change. This work analyses qualitative scenarios with the support of insights from the theoretical literature and information collected from case studies about Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey. We deal with several dimensions of adaptation, including the role of the government, equity, uncertainty and linkages with mitigation.

This paper establishes and measures key biodiversity and ecosystem health indicators and the number of world heritage sites in coastal areas at global level. It then estimates – econometrically – the indicators’ influence on the provision of tourism values through the marine ecosystem function as a harbour of biodiversity, and as a provider of amenity values and marine cultural identity. The report then focuses on the MEDPRO region, providing some estimates of the potential impact of climate change on these services for a given temperature increase scenario.

This paper has two objectives. First, it attempts to establish the potential of policies on energy efficiency and energy demand-side management in the southern Mediterranean region. Second, by examining past trends in energy intensity and trends up to 2030, it analyses the prospects and costs of such policies, compared with expected developments in the price of energy resources. Based on both analyses (MEDPRO WP4) and on prospects for growth (MEDPRO WP8), it seems that energy intensity in the Mediterranean should fall perceptibly by approximately 13% in the next 20 years.

This paper investigates the relationship between female labour force participation rates and economic growth in southern Mediterranean countries. A two-step methodology involving econometric estimations and the use of a general equilibrium model was used for this purpose.

The econometric estimations suggest that there is a U-shaped relationship between economic growth and female labour force participation rates and they indicate the presence of region-specific barriers impeding women's entry into the labour force in southern Mediterranean countries.

The aim of this report is to elaborate the MEDPRO Energy Reference Scenario for oil and gas supply and demand up to 2030 for southern and eastern Mediterranean countries. The report gives an assessment of  

• oil and gas reserves by country;
• oil and gas production, domestic demand and export scenarios by country; and
• the existing and planned infrastructure for oil and gas exports.

Finally, the report presents some insights on the future role of the Mediterranean as an oil and gas transit region.

The aim of this report is to elaborate the MEDPRO Energy Reference Scenario for electricity demand and power generation (by energy source) in the southern and eastern part of the Mediterranean (MED-11 countries) up to 2030. The report assesses:

This paper investigates the evolution and determinants of manufactured exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) in 11 southern Mediterranean countries over the period 1985–2009 as well as their prospects under different scenarios pertaining to the development of the determinants. The econometric analysis confirms the role of exchange rate depreciation, the openness of the economy and the quality of institutions and infrastructure in fostering manufactured exports and FDI inflows in the region.

To date, Southern Mediterranean countries have hosted a limited number of projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). There are three challenges to the participation of middle-income countries in future carbon markets: the limited size of future demand for offsets or credits; restrictions on the use of CDM credits in Phase III of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme; and the lack of prompt preparation for the start of new market-based mechanisms. This study examines existing and emerging activities in Southern Mediterranean countries that could fit into new market-based mechanisms.

This paper studying the 1995 EU-Turkey Customs Union (CU) reveals that the CU has been a major instrument of integration of the Turkish economy into the EU and global markets, offering powerful tools to reform the Turkish economy. Turkish producers of industrial goods are protected by tariffs from external competition to exactly the same extent as EU producers, and they face competition from duty-free imports of industrial goods from world-class pan-European firms.

Any analysis of the prospects for stability and sustainability in the states of Syria and Lebanon reveals the strong ties between these two countries and the impact of external influences on their overall development. Their trajectories, while starkly divergent in terms of the challenges confronting them at present, ultimately converge on a path of long-term unsustainability.