In his latest CEPS Commentary, Michael Emerson speculates that circumstances are propitious for a new and positive turn to Russia’s relations with Europe and the transatlantic community. As evidence, he cites Russia’s belated ratification of Protocol 14 of the Convention on the European Court of Human Rights and the suggestion from influential German personalities that the question of NATO membership for Russia should be put back on the agenda.

Suddenly, after several years of diminished importance, the single market seems to have climbed back up the EU political agenda. Its rediscovery by the political leadership in Europe may well be due to the perceived role of the single market in the financial crisis or it may have been prompted indirectly by the blatant failure of the FSAP to deliver crisis-preventing or crisis-proof regulation and supervision.

Despite all the changes introduced in the EU over the last year – including the appointment of President Van Rompuy, the formation of the EU’s external action service with Baroness Ashton as ‘Minister’ of foreign affairs, the increased powers (both formal and informal) of the Parliament and the multiplication of EU agencies – and contrary to expectations, 2009 will not be remembered as the year in which ‘Brussels’ fell apart.

Did allowing financial institutions to become ‘too big’ play a role in the financial crisis? This Commentary by CEPS Director Daniel Gros argues that being ‘too interconnected’ is also a factor, and that US accounting standards should recognise exposure of gross derivatives on the balance sheet to make this interconnectedness, and the resulting exposure, clear.

Noriko Fujiwara performs a quick post-mortem on the outcome and performance of the EU at Copenhagen in this new CEPS Commentary and then swiftly moves on to draw lessons for how the EU can effectively and forcefully project itself into the forthcoming series of meetings leading to the next annual conference (COP16) in Mexico City before the end of the year.

One of the institutional innovations provided for in the Lisbon Treaty is the European Citizens’ Initiative (ECI), which aims to engage European citizens with the European project, help mobilise civil society and strengthen pan-European debate on European policies. But what happens if a citizens’ proposal is deemed inadmissible by the European Commission? CEPS Researcher Piotr Kaczyński considers this question in a new Commentary and makes suggestions for an appropriate response by the European Commission and other institutions.

Negotiations for a new Association Agreement between the European Union and Moldova are scheduled to begin on 12 January 2010, but, according to CEPS researcher George Dura, moves towards further visa liberalisation and a deep and comprehensive free trade area with the EU will largely depend on the sustainability and operability of the new government.

Despite its complexity and verbosity, Stefano Micossi pronounces the Treaty of Lisbon as a good Treaty and one that has created new institutions and procedures that will considerably enhance the Union’s ability to act. He warns, however, that the crux of the matter remains political will: stronger institutions and more effective decision-making procedures are instruments that must be infused with visions and goals and common actions, or else they will become irrelevant. In this context, he outlines three main challenges ahead.

The costs and benefits of carbon tariffs have been extensively discussed in terms of competitiveness and carbon leakage. This Commentary argues that global welfare should be the focus. EU tariffs against developing country exports would increase global welfare and the proceeds from the tariffs could help poorer exporting countries reduce the carbon intensity of their economies.

Following the bankruptcy of the oil giant Yukos by the Russian Federation in 2004 on grounds of alleged tax evasion, the majority shareholders of GML, together with the Yukos pension fund, filed an arbitration suit against the Russian Federation. The suit was filed under the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), the world’s only multilateral investment treaty. GML relied on the investor protection provisions of the ECT to argue that it had been expropriated and sought recovery for all losses, which may well top $100 billion.

Even more spectacular than the recent decline of the dollar against major world currencies has been the long-run decline of the US currency: since 1960 the dollar has lost two-thirds of its value against the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and the German mark (since 1999, the euro). At the same time, however, at least since the early 1990s, the US has been seen to produce superior economic results, i.e. a higher productivity growth than most of Europe and Japan with more or less the same rates of inflation.

To mark the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall, CEPS Director Daniel Gros offers his views on the economic consequences of German unification for Europe’s economy. He argues that the way in which unification was handled led not only a boom in Germany, but also to upheaval in the European Monetary System, which essentially fell apart between 1992 and 1995.

A recent field trip to the five countries of Central Asia has given CEPS Senior Fellow Michael Emerson cause to reconsider the wisdom of the regional dimension to the EU’s strategy in the area. While acknowledging that a number of wider regional or trans-continental issues that involve Central Asia are also of concern to the EU, he argues in this CEPS Commentary that they should be seen in a much wider context. In his view, these are essentially EurAsian issues, with important long-term implications for the EU’s relations with Russia, China and India.

This Commentary examines the motivations behind President Obama’s controversial decision to abandon plans for a missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic and assesses its consequences for US-EU relations as well as for relations between Western and Eastern Europe. Roderick Kefferpütz is Programme Coordinator at the European Union Office of the Heinrich Böll Foundation, a think-tank and policy network affiliated with the German Green Party.