Work Package 2 of the ANCIEN project assesses the future numbers of care-dependent elderly in four selected countries: Spain, Poland, Germany and the Netherlands. The estimates are consistent with the available disability data and the mortality forecasts of the EUROPOP 2008 scenarios. The results show the effects of  assumptions about how old age disability and mortality are related, and assess the effects of smoking and BMI.

The main determinant of future numbers of disabled elderly turns out to be the demographic ageing of the large baby boom cohorts. The impact of life extension depends on the correlation of old age disability and mortality, and is moderate under reasonable assumptions. Obesity and (quitting) smoking have very little effect.